Bihar Exit Polls: RJD led alliance set to make a grand comeback

Voting for the third and final phase of assembly elections concluded on Saturday evening. The official counting will take place on November 10 but Exit Poll results are out. The exit polls conducted by India Today and Aaj Tak combined known as the Axis Poll has predicted a clear win of RJD led alliance with a sweeping majority. The Axis Poll is known for its accurate predictions of the number of seats each party is going to win.

The fancy algorithms of the pollsters predicting the win of NDA in Bihar have failed miserably this time. Bihar election politics is very complex to understand and is a tough nut to crack. There are few people only who can catch the right nerve of these elections.

Let us analyze in detail why colors have changed in Bihar and why Tesjaswi Yadav is at the helm of affairs this time in big Bihar battle and is the End of the road for the “Vikas purush” of Bihar, CM Nitish Kumar?

There are many reasons and the downfall of Nitish Kumar’s popularity and it cannot be attributed to just one factor. One of the major factors contributing towards the anti-Nitish hawa is the growing anger of the masses towards him. There is a very strong Anti-incumbency against the ruling government and especially against Nitish Kumar himself. He has failed to connect with the masses and has made no sincere attempts to pacify the local people. When the Migrant workers were suffering and when the normal people suffered this year from Floods apart from the pandemic, he just announced some relief packages while staying aloof personally. On the other hand, Tejaswi Yadav was smart enough to plot his moves and he visited the flood-affected people and assured them that if he is elected to power, he will make sure that he provides them sufficient amenities to fight the floods.

Unlike the BJP led alliance Tejaswi Yadav hasn’t just banked on the only Muslims+Yadav who are the core supporters of RJD. While making his speech in Nawada rally with Rahul Gandhi he made it in a caste-inclusive manner appealing to even the forward castes to vote for him if they wanted to see a substantial change in Bihar. Nitish Kumar on the contrary lost his cool in many of his rallies and hence he affirmed his image that was fielded by the Opposition parties.

BJP-JDU-LJP combination had a combined vote share of 40-45% vote share in the 2015 general elections but this year LJP has decided to march alone. As per the Exit Poll predictions, LJP might end up winning only 6-7 seats but it has damaged BJP and JDU’s vote share and it is predicted to go down by 6-7%. So, what has happened is that Chirag Paswan claiming to be PM Modi’s Hanuman has burned down Ayodhya instead of Lanka.

Last but not least the major component of NDA’s voter bank, the youth of Bihar has turned his back towards Nitish Kumar. The major factor that has played the role is the lack of employment opportunities in Bihar coupled with other factors like corruption, the poor state of farmers and industries. Tejaswi Yadav directed his whole campaign towards these issues and announced 10lacs jobs irrespective of caste. Although BJP promised 19lacs jobs in its manifesto that seems have failed in creating the impact it should create. PM Modi’s magic also didn’t help in the revival of Nitish Kumar in people’s eyes as they vote differently in Central and State elections.

Lastly, though the Exit Poll may seem to be accurate, there are many silent supporters of NDA and Nitish Kumar and only final counting will tell us whether they have been able to turn the tables in favor of Nitish Kumar.

Whether it will be a Happy Diwali for Nitish Kumar or will the Lalten light again, the suspense would be over on November 10.